High-Speed Rail & the Short-Term Rental Market in Italy
How high-speed rail reshapes local economies through the lens of Airbnb data
Context
Italy's high-speed rail network has transformed inter-city connectivity, but its impact on local real estate and short-term rental markets remained poorly understood. This project investigates how HSR station proximity and accessibility shape rental prices and market dynamics using a machine learning approach.
Data
- Airbnb listing data across Italian cities (prices, occupancy, characteristics)
- HSR station locations, service frequency, and network accessibility
- Socioeconomic and land-use covariates
- OpenStreetMap infrastructure data
Methodology
- Machine learning models (gradient boosting, random forests) for price prediction and feature importance
- Spatial econometric models to isolate the causal effect of HSR accessibility
- Heterogeneity analysis across city typologies and distance bands
Key Results
- Quantified rental premium effects in proximity to HSR stations
- Identified heterogeneous impacts across different city types and market segments
- Provided evidence for integrated transport-land use policy design